Source: http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_9397195?source=email

By Mark Jaffe
The Denver Post
Article Last Updated: 05/28/2008 09:45:12 AM MDT

Some of the most dramatic — and negative — effects from climate change will take place in the American West, according to a new federal study. While the East will become wetter and Midwest grain crops may benefit from longer growing seasons, the West will be drier and rangeland livestock production could decline because of stress from hotter summers.

The study by the U.S. Department of Agriculture — a survey and synthesis of existing research — paints a picture of sweeping changes in the next 30 to 50 years. The analysis is based on an assumed rise in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide — the main greenhouse gas — from the current 380 parts per million to 440 ppm and a 2.16 degree Fahrenheit increase in average temperature.

According to the report, Western states will face substantial challenges because of growing demand for water and big projected drops in supplies.

From 2040 to 2060, anticipated water flows from rainfall in much of the West are likely to approach a 20 percent decrease in the average from 1901 to 1970, and are likely to be much lower in places like the fast-growing Southwest. In contrast, runoff in much of the Midwest and East is expected to increase that much or more.

"Some of the really marked impacts are happening in the West," said Peter Backlund, a lead author and researcher at the Boulder-based National Center for Atmospheric Research. "It is really daunting." The West may face changes in the following areas:

Arid lands

Juniper trees, forbs and woody plants may expand their range, taking advantage of the carbon dioxide in the air. Species such as saguaro cactus and Joshua trees may be threatened by increased fire risks. Drought and severe rainstorms also could lead to erosion.

Livestock production

Because livestock eat less in hot weather, there are projected increases in days to market in the West by 2040: 2.2 percent for cattle and 3.3 percent for pigs. A 2.3 percent delay — equal to 1.5 days — in the central U.S. would cost swine producers there $5 million a year.

Forest fires

The size and number of fires in the West have increased since 1985. The trend is linked to lower snowmelt and higher spring and summer air temperatures. In 2007, almost seven times as much forest acreage burned as in 1987, with many more high-elevation fires.

Insects and invasives

A warmer climate will spread the range of pests, such as the pine bark beetle and the spruce beetle, as well as expand the range of invasive, non- native grasses in the Southwestern deserts. This will increase fire risks in the areas.

Water

There has been a downward trend in snowpack water over the past 80 years because of changes in temperature and precipitation. Snow is melting an average 10 to 20 days earlier in Colorado, and by 2050 runoff could be reduced by 20 percent, according to one projection.

Denver Post news services contributed to this report

Source: http://www.summitdaily.com/article/20080531/NEWS/720008903

DURANGO — Coal-fired power plants and other pollution sources in the Four Corners area could boost smog levels past federal limits in New Mexico and southwest Colorado this summer, government officials and environment and health care managers warn.

Mesa Verde National Park near Cortez could exceed federal air-quality standards, said participants at an air-quality forum at Fort Lewis College last week.

“Very serious air-quality issues need to be addressed, particularly ozone,” said Mary Uhl, air quality division bureau chief at the New Mexico Environment Department.
She said San Juan County in northwest New Mexico may violate federal standards this summer, and southwest Colorado might, too. Uhl added that Mesa Verde might also be out of compliance if it’s a bad summer.

Ground-level ozone, a key component of smog, is created when the sun bakes pollutants such as vehicle exhaust, wildfire smoke and vapors from everything from paint cans to oil and gas wells. The Environmental Protection Agency in March tightened the ozone limit to 75 parts per billion, down from the maximum concentration of 80 to 84 parts per billion.

Even before the new standard, a nine-county area along Colorado’s Front Range, including the Denver area, was declared in violation of the ozone standard. State regulators have imposed more stringent rules on the oil and gas industry to help cut pollution.

Uhl noted that the Four Corners area is home to two coal-fired power plants, with another one proposed, and 19,000 oil and gas wells, with 12,000 more projected over the next 20 years.

Other air-quality problems in the area are haze, mercury and nitrate pollution, Uhl said.

She said the region contains seven Class 1 sites, generally national parks or wilderness areas, where the air quality is supposed to be better than in other areas.

May 30, 2008
By Dale Rodebaugh | Herald Staff Writer

Southwest Colorado, given its proximity to coal-fired power plant pollution in New Mexico, could exceed federal air-quality standards this summer.

This was one of the take-home messages delivered at an air-quality forum Thursday at Fort Lewis College. The daylong meeting brought together representatives of federal, state, local and tribal groups as well as representatives of health-care and environmental organizations.

"Very serious air-quality issues need to be addressed, particularly ozone," said Mary Uhl, bureau chief at the New Mexico Environment Department. "Unless something unusual happens, we (San Juan County, N.M.) will be in non-attainment this summer."

Because pollution knows no boundaries, Southwest Colorado could follow suit, Uhl said. The Four Corners, she said, is home to two coal-fired power plants with another one projected, 19,000 oil and natural-gas wells with 12,000 more projected for the next 20 years, as well as many small unregulated sources of pollution.

A science advisory panel at the Environmental Protection Agency recommended the ozone limit be 60 to 70 parts per billion, but the head of the agency, a political appointee, overrode the recommendation and set the limit at 75 ppb, Uhl said. Consequently, Mesa Verde National Park and Navajo Reservoir are flirting with the cap.

"Ozone is a health risk," Uhl said. "If it's a bad summer, Mesa Verde could be in non-attainment."

But exceeding the ozone mark could have its up side, Uhl said.

"We see this as a positive because it would require control measures be set," Uhl said. "Mesa Verde is a national park with outdoor activities."

Seven Class I sites - national parks or wilderness areas - are in the region, she said.

Federal air-quality guidelines measure carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxide, particulate matter, sulfur dioxide and volatile organic compounds.

In addition to high ozone levels, the Four Corners faces air-quality issues such as haze, greenhouse-gas emissions, mercury and nitrate pollution and increased emissions from transportation and nonmobile sources, Uhl and others said.

Patrick Cummins, representing the Western Regional Air Partnership, an association of 15 states, tribes and federal agencies, said that no matter what the environmental problem is, the culprits are the same - coal-fired power plants, vehicles, mining, construction and agricultural activity.

"No matter what we talk about, the sources are the same," Cummins said.

Koren Nydick, director of the Mountain Studies Institute, spoke about mercury precipitation in Southwest Colorado and the San Juan Mountains.

San Juan County in northwestern New Mexico is the fifth-largest emitter of mercury among all counties in the nation, Nydick said.

"Measurements of mercury are scarce in the region, but existing data show very high concentrations in precipitation at Mesa Verde National Park. There also are mercury fish advisories at McPhee, Narraguinnep, Sanchez and Navajo reservoirs, which are due in part to air pollution."

The Mountain Studies Institute began studying mercury in the environment last year, taking measurements in precipitation, lake zooplankton and lake sediment. Mercury at high level in humans can harm organs.

Uhl spoke about New Mexico's policies to minimize exposure to mercury by reducing or eliminating emissions and use of products containing mercury when possible.

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